A new report suggests buyers will be more diverse in geography, broader in sector representation, and more strategic in how credits are used.
After years of demand driven by a relatively concentrated group of corporates, a new report from AlliedOffsets, The Future Buyers in the Voluntary Carbon Market, suggests that the next wave of buyers will look markedly different. Tomorrow’s carbon credit purchasers will be more diverse in geography, broader in sector representation, and more strategic in how carbon credits are used. Drawing on a dataset of over 130,000 companies, the report offers one of the clearest signals yet that the VCM is transitioning from an early-stage, voluntary mechanism into a more mature and globally distributed market.
The report highlights that future demand will be shaped by two distinct groups: returning buyers and new entrants. Companies that previously participated in the VCM are expected to re-engage, particularly across sectors like finance, energy, and heavy industry. However, their role in driving growth may be more limited than in the past. Many of these organizations have spent the last several years investing heavily in internal decarbonization strategies (electrification, efficiency improvements, and supply chain optimization) and are now approaching carbon credits with greater selectivity. Rather than purchasing at scale, they are more likely to use credits to address residual emissions or to complement broader climate strategies. As a result, their return signals stability and continued relevance for the market, but not necessarily a dramatic increase in overall volume.
In contrast, new entrants are poised to become the primary engine of growth. The report identifies more than 2,500 companies that are likely to enter the market in the near term, significantly expanding the pool of active buyers. What distinguishes this cohort is not just its size, but its diversity. Unlike earlier waves of participation, which were dominated by technology firms and energy companies, this new group spans a much wider range of industries. Consumer goods companies, professional services firms, healthcare organizations, and even construction and real estate players are increasingly represented. This shift reflects a broader normalization of carbon markets as a climate tool that is no longer confined to emissions-intensive sectors but is being adopted across the economy.
Geographically, the expansion is equally notable. While the United States remains the single largest source of future demand, growth is increasingly distributed across Europe and Asia, with countries like France, the United Kingdom, China, and South Korea expected to see significant increases in participation. At the same time, new buyers are emerging from markets that have historically had limited representation in the VCM, such as Turkey and Belgium. This growing geographic diversity not only strengthens the resilience of demand but also underscores the global nature of corporate climate commitments.
Perhaps the most transformative driver of future demand, however, lies in the aviation sector. With the implementation of CORSIA, more than 500 airlines are expected to enter the carbon market, creating a large and relatively predictable source of demand. Unlike traditional voluntary buyers, these participants will be driven by compliance obligations, requiring the use of CORSIA-eligible credits to offset emissions from international flights. This introduces a new dynamic into the VCM, where voluntary and compliance-driven demand begin to converge. The impact is substantial, with aviation alone projected to contribute hundreds of millions of dollars in annual market value, fundamentally reshaping both the scale and structure of demand.
As the buyer base evolves, so too does the profile of the typical carbon credit purchaser. Future buyers are increasingly characterized by formal climate commitments, including net-zero targets and interim milestones, as well as participation in initiatives such as the Science Based Targets initiative. Many are implementing internal carbon pricing mechanisms and facing growing pressure from regulators, investors, and consumers to demonstrate credible climate action. Interestingly, the likelihood of participation is influenced not only by a company’s emissions profile but also by its strategic positioning. Organizations in hard-to-abate sectors continue to rely on carbon credits to manage unavoidable emissions, while those in less emissions-intensive industries are often motivated by brand considerations and the desire to demonstrate climate leadership.
At the same time, the types of credits in demand are shifting in meaningful ways.
Forestry and land-use projects are expected to account for over 50% of future demand, driven by:
A major increase is expected in:
This reflects growing buyer sophistication and interest in high-integrity, measurable impact credits.
While still significant, renewable energy credits are declining as a share of total demand. Suggesting:
Taken together, these trends point to a market that is not only growing but also maturing. The report estimates that new and returning buyers could generate demand for approximately 281 million credits annually, representing a market value of more than $2 billion. Yet beyond the headline figures, the more significant story is the changing nature of demand itself. The VCM is becoming more structured, more data-driven, and increasingly influenced by policy frameworks and corporate accountability mechanisms.
💡 The carbon credit market is expanding beyond emissions-intensive industries into sectors like healthcare and professional services, each with unique risk tolerances and climate goals. This shift renders one-size-fits-all origination and sales models obsolete, requiring strategies segmented by a buyer’s specific geographic context and stage in their net-zero journey. Success now depends on consultative, insight-led engagement that aligns credit acquisition with precise corporate objectives like brand positioning or regulatory readiness.
💡 As scrutiny from regulators and investors intensifies, the market is moving away from price-driven commodity trading toward a focus on high-integrity assets. Buyers now prioritize credits with proven additionality, robust verification, and clear co-benefits, such as biodiversity protection, to safeguard against reputational risk. Consequently, developers must provide total transparency and rigorous third-party validation to attract discerning organizations looking for defensible climate claims.
💡 Compliance-driven mandates, such as CORSIA for aviation, are transforming the voluntary market by introducing standardized demand and stricter eligibility criteria. This regulatory intersection creates a more predictable baseline for demand but requires suppliers to ensure their credits meet compliance-grade standards to remain viable. As the distinction between voluntary action and legal obligation blurs, market participants must integrate both frameworks into a single, cohesive decarbonization strategy.
