Read more in the June 27 edition of Invert Insights.
A new study, Addressing critiques refines global estimates of reforestation potential for climate change mitigation, provides a comprehensive re-evaluation of the global capacity for reforestation, aiming to offer more robust and policy-relevant estimates.
It highlights that while reforestation is a crucial climate change mitigation strategy, previous global projections have faced significant criticism due to broad definitions, data limitations, and a lack of safeguards against adverse outcomes. This new analysis addresses these concerns by developing refined global maps and presenting eight reforestation scenarios with varying objectives.
The study involved a thorough review of 89 existing reforestation maps, identifying common processes, data types, and exclusions. Previous global reforestation maps have estimated the area available for restoration at between 678 million and 2509 million hectares (Mha). These estimates were criticized for three major reasons: (1) vague or overly broad definitions of forest, including ecosystems such as savannas that should not be reforested; (2) reliance on outdated or coarse land-use data, leading to inaccurate representations of land cover and tree canopy; and (3) failure to include safeguards to avoid negative consequences such as displacement of rural communities, food insecurity, or loss of biodiversity due to tree planting in inappropriate ecosystems.
The study presents eight distinct reforestation scenarios, each reflecting different ecological, social, or political goals. These include avoiding social conflicts by prioritizing areas with secure land tenure and strong governance, delivering ecosystem services such as improved water quality or biodiversity, and aligning with existing government commitments to forest restoration. Notably, only a small fraction of land – about 15 Mha – meets criteria across multiple scenarios, suggesting that trade-offs are inevitable and that no single approach will serve all objectives.
Beyond simply identifying suitable land, the report introduces seven additional scenarios to contextualize reforestation potential, enabling decision-makers to evaluate feasibility and desirability based on specific circumstances. These scenarios include:
Notably, the protected areas scenario yields the smallest potential area (6 Mha) and mitigation (53 TgCO2e per year). The analysis reveals that few locations can simultaneously achieve multiple objectives, underscoring the need for a diverse approach to reforestation that considers various motivations and land types. While there are challenges in meeting all objectives, the study finds that a significant portion of the constrained reforestation potential (83%) is near existing forests, promoting natural regeneration and biodiversity. Moreover, 81% of this potential aligns with low rural livelihood conflict areas, suggesting opportunities for substantial reforestation without negatively impacting vulnerable communities. The sensitivity analysis indicates that results are most affected by the tree cover threshold used to define forest and by land tenure maps. This work provides a more realistic and actionable foundation for global reforestation efforts, emphasizing the importance of sustainable and equitable practices.
In conclusion, the study demonstrates that while reforestation remains a valuable climate mitigation tool, it’s necessary to conduct the proper due diligence to determine the measurable climate impact, especially when social and ecological safeguards are applied. Nevertheless, the 195 Mha identified under the constrained scenario represents a significant opportunity if pursued with care and precision. The study also offers spatial data and code for policymakers, practitioners, and researchers to adapt the methodology to their specific needs.
Ultimately, the research on global reforestation potential reinforces the importance of placing quality, context, and community inclusion at the center of reforestation planning, especially if it is to play a credible role in carbon markets and climate strategies.
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💡Based on these findings, high-integrity reforestation opportunities are much scarcer than previously thought. The study reduces the estimated global reforestation potential from up to 2509 million hectares to just 195 million hectares when applying ecological and social safeguards. This means there is less available land for viable reforestation carbon projects than previously assumed.
💡 Buyers should be more discerning, focusing on projects with robust baseline assessments, additionality, and permanence. Reforestation projects in areas with insecure tenure, fire-prone ecosystems, or biodiversity risks are less likely to meet quality standards under frameworks like ICVCM or VCMI. Prioritize credits from projects that demonstrate alignment with community rights, strong governance, and ecological appropriateness. These factors not only ensure credit integrity but also reduce future reputational and financial risk as carbon markets face increasing scrutiny.
💡 Working with the right partner is key to ensuring you’re making a wise climate investment. Book a discovery call with Invert’s team of forest-based project experts to learn more.
