Read more in the November 22 edition of Invert Insights.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued their annual summary and update of key climate indicators in their report titled the State of the Climate 2024. The WMO, which has issued a report every year since 1993, highlights that the headlines in this year’s report give cause for great concern. The report highlights that as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to steadily rise, long-term planet temperature increases, highlighting the rapid changes in our climate system in the space of just a single generation.
Based on their assessment, we are on track for 2024 to be the hottest year on record joining 2023 as the previous hottest year on record. Consequently, ocean heat content values continued an upward trend in 2023 and 2024, contributing to other changes in the climate system such as sea level rise and intense storms. The record-breaking rainfall and flooding, rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones, deadly heat, relentless drought and raging wildfires that we have seen in different parts of the world this year are unfortunately our new reality and a foretaste of our future.
Some key highlights on the state of climate in 2024 include:
Greenhouse gasses reached record observed levels in 2023 and real time data indicates that they continued to rise in 2024. The atmospheric concentration of CO2 has increased from around 278 ppm in 1750 to the current level of 420 ppm, an increase of 51%. The average CO2 growth rate during the past decade was 2.4 ppm per year. Emissions from fossil fuels have been the largest source of human emissions since the 1950s.
January – September 2024 global mean surface air temperature was 1.54±0.13°C above the pre-industrial average and 2024 is on track to be the warmest year on record. For 16 consecutive months (June 2023 to September 2024), the global mean exceeded anything recorded before 2023 and often by a wide margin. 2023 and 2024 will be the two warmest years on record, with the latter being on track to be the warmest, making the past 10 years, 2015 to 2024, the warmest ten years in the 175-year observational record.
Antarctic and Arctic sea ice extent in 2024 have both been well below average. In 2023, globally, glaciers lost an estimated water equivalent to about 5 times the amount of water within the Dead Sea. Glacier loss is accelerating and in 2023, glaciers lost an observed record 1.2 meter water equivalent of ice.
Ocean heat content in 2023 was the highest on record. Preliminary data show that 2024 has continued at comparable levels. In 2023, the ocean absorbed around 3.1 million TWh of heat, equal to approximately 18 times the world’s total energy consumption. Sea level rise is also accelerating. From 2014-2023, global mean sea level rose at a rate of 4.77 mm per year. That’s more than double the rate from 1993-2002 (2.13 mm/yr).
Extreme weather events led to extensive damage across the globe. Droughts, floods, tropical cyclones, heatwaves, and cold waves cause significant damage, loss of thousands of lives, and pose significant barriers to sustainable development. 2023 & 2024 brought flooding across Europe and in Brazil, the Sahel, East Africa, and Afghanistan, while North America saw very active wildfire seasons in Canada and the United States and a drought affecting many parts of Mexico and Central America. The world experienced numerous significant heat waves across most continents and Asia saw devastation from Typhoon Yagi.
How do we move forward from here? As highlighted in the report, we must continue to strive to limit warming as much as possible, recognizing that staying well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C remains critical to significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. At the same time, the state of climate in 20204 is showing us we need to step up support for climate change adaptation through climate services and early warnings.
Invert Insights.
💡Eyes now turn to what 2025 might bring. With the new President-elect Donald Trump taking office in January 2025, some fear how his promised rollback of climate initiatives and a deprioritization of the environment for his administration will impact climate change around the world. During his first term, Trump, a vocal climate skeptic, rolled back climate regulations and pulled the US out of the Paris Agreement, a move he has promised to repeat. He’s also promised to ‘drill, baby, drill’, a campaign mantra he boasted often. Some estimates show a Trump administration could lead to an additional 4bn tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) of US emissions by 2030, compared to continuing current president Joe Biden’s plans.
💡 Now, more than ever, we need to ensure meaningful financial investments are being made to decarbonize as fast as possible. With 2024 set to be the first year the planet will breach the 1.5C global warming threshold and with so much uncertainty around how Trump’s presidency will impact the United States’ contribution towards global climate goals, the voluntary carbon market plays an integral role in channeling finance to safeguard our forests, oceans, and planet.
